DTV Symposium: The Ten HDTV Predictions for 2008

The 13th annual DTV Symposium is under way in Des Moines. Iowa Public Television runs the symposium, which has acquired a reputation for bringing together some of the best technological thinking in public and commercial media.

I wasn’t able to get out of Minneapolis (PRPD) until this morning, but I got in just in time for Phillip Swann’s unveiling of his annual list of HDTV predictions.

The list is below; Phillip’s complete version is here.

• Digital TV becomes a political football – expect calls to move the transition back a bit
• The average HDTV set price will stabilize a bit – prices went down too fast last year
• Consequently, more people will buy low cost digital televisions
• Digital TV converter boxes will do poorly – not much promotion; consumers will remain confused
• The HDTV arms race between sat, cable and the telcos will only get worse
• Consumer confusion will only increase – more and more stories about the transition, many will be incorrect
• Local HDTV news will become a marketing weapon to get ratings
• HDTV is going to become a marketing weapon among the cable companies
• The networks will produce more shows that are geared to the HDTV audience
• Sony and Toshiba will reach a deal on a single HD DVD standard

There seems to be a growing consensus around the importance of high definition programming – driven largely by consumer demand. (By “growing consensus” I mean, Dennis Haarsager and others have been saying something like this for a long time, and I finally understood that they’re right.)

My interest in multicasting was reasonably strong, until I finally upgraded to HD in May. Once I could watch HD every day, I lost interest in having additional, inferior-looking multicast channels thrust upon me, especially channels that merely regurgitate the stuff I don’t like from the main channel. (Ahem, Create.) In fact, I’ve grown to dislike watching any show in SD.
So there it is, I guess: when it comes to video, more isn’t better; better is better.

Speaking of Dennis Haarsager, he’ll be speaking at the DTV Symposium tomorrow afternoon. His topic: Myth, Media and Meta; Three Information Epochs and What The Mean for Broadcasting. I have no doubt it will be good, and I’ll be there taking notes.